HomeBusinessD-St Week Ahead: Market lighter than usual ahead of Budget, any positive...

D-St Week Ahead: Market lighter than usual ahead of Budget, any positive news to boost indices

It was the second week in a row that remained predominantly corrective in nature because the benchmark index Nifty50 ended on a unfavorable word.

Despite the unfavorable week, there have been feeble indicators of Nifty making an attempt to discover some assist and kind a brief base for itself. The buying and selling vary remained that of 762.50-points; considerably comparable to the 865-point buying and selling vary within the week earlier than this one. Some pullback was witnessed as Nifty rebounded a bit after testing the decrease Bollinger band.

The directional bias continued to stay bearish; and the headline index lastly ended with a internet loss of 515.20 factors on a weekly foundation.

With the month-to-month derivatives expiry finished and dusted, we enter one of a very powerful weeks of the buying and selling in a 12 months.

We head into the Union Budget week, which is slated to be introduced on Tuesday, February 1. By far, this stays a very powerful home occasion for the markets as all the time. However, the technical construction stays considerably totally different this time.

Usually, we now have the markets run-up ahead of the Budget on expectations. This time, issues are fairly the other. There has been a pointy corrective transfer ahead of the Budget. This considerably lets the market go in for the Union Budget on a a lot lighter word than usual. We may have greater prospects of the markets giving a positive reactions to slightest of the favorable bulletins within the Budget.

Volatility continued to rise; India VIX surged 9.57 per cent to 20.69. The coming week is anticipated to see the degrees of 17,300 and 17,485 appearing as resistance factors. The helps are available at 16,910 and 16,800 ranges. The buying and selling vary for the approaching week will proceed to stay broader than usual.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly chart is 49.63; it stays impartial and doesn’t present any divergence in opposition to the worth. The weekly MACD stays bearish and trades beneath the sign line.


Despite the severity of the corrective strikes witnessed over the previous weeks, there isn’t a structural technical injury on the weekly charts. The sample evaluation means that Nifty could also be buying and selling beneath the 20-Week MA, but it surely trades effectively above the 50-, 100-, and the 200-Week MA. So lengthy as probably the most instant 50-Week MA which presently stands at 16,347 stands defended, the markets will simply be below broad-ranged consolidation.

Even taking issues on a conservative word, probably the most essential and essential factor that markets will want to do is to defend the low level of 16,400 ranges within the occasion of any unfavorable reactions to the Budget. Although this appears very a lot unlikely that there could also be any main unfavorable in retailer for the markets, defending this level will maintain the markets in a ranged consolidation.

The broader markets will proceed to comparatively outperform and there are probabilities that we may additionally see some risk-on setting within the markets. We suggest keep away from taking heavy exposures ahead of the markets; whereas avoiding shorts, selective purchases could also be made as soon as the Budget is absolutely digested by the markets.



The evaluation of Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) exhibits whereas the IT sector has proven robust paring of relative momentum whereas staying within the main quadrant, the vitality index has rolled contained in the main quadrant once more. Apart from this, the auto index can also be contained in the main quadrant.

The realty and media indices proceed to languish contained in the weakening quadrant together with the midcap and the PSU financial institution index. The PSU financial institution index seems to be rebuilding on a relative momentum entrance.

Nifty Services Sector Index is seen rolling again contained in the main quadrant. Nifty Bank and FMCG indices are contained in the lagging quadrant; nevertheless they seem to be bettering on their relative momentum together with Nifty Financial Services Index.

Nifty pharma and the metallic indices are contained in the bettering quadrant. They are probably to present stock-specific relative outperformance in opposition to the broader markets.

Disclaimer: RRGTM charts present the relative energy and momentum for a bunch of shares. In the above Chart, they present relative efficiency in opposition to NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and shouldn’t be used instantly as purchase or promote alerts.

(Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA, is a Consulting Technical Analyst and founder of EquityResearch.asia and ChartWizard.ae and relies at Vadodara. He will be reached at milan.vaishnav@equityresearch.asia)



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